ANALISIS VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI PRICE EARNING RATIO DALAM PENILAIAN HARGA SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA (TAHUN 1998 – 2001)

Marli - -, Soemarsono - -, Munawar - Ismail

Abstract


ABSTRAK

Penilaian harga saham berdasarkan analisa fundamental diklasifikasikan pada pendekatan dividend discount model dan P/E ratio. Permasalahan yang penting dalam penelitian ini menyangkut tentang aplikasi penilaian harga saham berdasarkan pendekatan PER dengan menggunakan variabel bebas yang dianggap relevan mempengaruhi harga saham. Selain itu, juga dapat digunakan untuk menjelaskan kondisi harga saham, variabel mana yang dominan dan bagaimana perubahan harga sahamnya dengan acuan pada pendekatan P/E ratio. Variabel yang dipertimbangkan oleh investor dalam melakukan investasi di pasar modal diantaranya dividend payout ratio, standard deviation of EPS, return on equity dan debt to equity ratio sedangkan earning growth tetap dipertimbangkan tetapi dengan tingkat signifikansi yang lebih rendah. Return on equity merupakan variabel penelitian yang paling dominan mempengaruhi harga saham. Harga saham di Bursa efek Jakarta belum menunjukkan harga yang wajar dan berdasarkan analisa teknikal dengan menggunakan indikator moving average dan trend, kecenderungan perubahan harga sahamnya tidak selalu menuju nilai intrinsiknya.

Kata kunci: P/E ratio, return on equity, debt to equity ratio

ABSTRACT

The assessment of stock price based on fundamental analyse is grouped on model discount dividend approach and P/E ratio. The important problems in this research include assessment stock price application based on PER approach using independent variable which have relevant influence at stock price. It also used to explain stock price condition, dominant variable, and how is the changing of stock price with based on P/E ratio approach. Variable considered by investor on conducting investment in stock exchange market are: dividend payout ratio, standard deviation of EPS, return on equity, and debt to equity ratio while earning growth also considered but at lower significance level. Return on equity is dominant influence research variable on stock price. Stock price in Jakarta stock exchange market does not indicate usual price yet and based on technical analyse using moving average indicator and trend. The trend of stock price changing does not always refer to it’s intrinsic value.

Keywords: P/E ratio, return on equity, debt to equity ratio


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